# dkrock replies to: Outcome Is Random

Your 50-50 probability is not true in trading if you use sample sizes. Probability refers to averages, so you need to produce averages, by your sample size, in order to create probability. My probability of winning a trade is 87% because I am not flipping coins. If you are trying to predict what an individual trader will do, then that might approach 50-50, but once you group traders, the probability changes according to your sample size.

Anything can happen at any time by anyone is true though, but mostly irrelevant. An average is not usually disputed by an outlier.

The market moves in cycles, not in a constant either/or condition. It is my trading proverb #1. What goes up, must come down. What goes down, must come up. That is how you trade all trades equally. Either it is ready to go up or it is ready to go down. The probability built into your average helps you decide. Nothing 50-50 about it. Coin flips do not move in cycles, and are not normally distributed by sample sizes, making their sample size infinite and adhere to the Law of Large Numbers, which simply states that the more flips you do, the more likely the probability will be 50-50. However, applying this rule to find your average will make you a seriously good trader, lol. Once you know the average, you simply use an oscillator to track price from the average to the apex and back. There are definite cycles in the market or else you would never have a high followed by a low followed by a high, etc. Cycles…not 50-50…not random; but only available via probability.

Technical pirate cruising the markets