Martingale really has a good chance of working as long as the following conditions are met: 1. Ratio risk / benefit greater than 1 (preferably greater than 3) 2. Brokers with high leverage, low spread and low commission. 3. The initial operation should risk less than 1% (I use between 0.2% and 0.6%) 4. after losing an operation, increase the risk on a fixed percentage (eg 13% or 20% etc) never risk double the previous operation if you meet these conditions, you can operate martingale (dimmed) and “afford” to lose 20, 30 or even 35 consecutive times….
Thank you for this post, this seems a very safe approach with Martingale considering you can bear 20 losses in a row. But on the other hand with a risk/reward of 1/3, the odds of winning go way below 50% don’t they (unless you are really good at picking the trades), so are you not in the “Martingale recovery” mode most of the time?
Edit: I just created an excel sheet to back your numbers. I used a €10.000 equity to start with. To come to 20 losses in a row you could start with a 0,25% risk of equity and a 1:4 risk reward ratio. This way your 21st loss will bust your account. I can’t make it happen with a 1:3 ratio, either you bust before the 20th trade or your equity recovery after 1 win will not make up for all the losses.