michaellobry replies to: Can anyone make a thread about: ‘how to make profit’ + proof?

ForexFactory contains many threads about ‘making profit’. My question:

1. is anyone willing to look thru all those threads, and sum them up in a new thread?
2. you are able to categorize the arguments into ‘CAN WORK’ and ‘CANNOT WORK’ (in the forex market).
3. provide the link of the thread

The result of a new thread:
– complete overview,
– which leads to an intellectual discussion,
– finally we can use this new thread for our inspiration, trading system (and rule out negative possibilities and focus on priorities).

Please UP this thread so people will read this.

Use below layout (or similar) for the new thread:

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—– LAYOUT —–

NEW THREAD:

HOW TO MAKE PROFIT IN FOREX!
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Introduction: ……………. (for example: there is no guarantee to make consistent profit, but…. if I would recommend anything at all, the best direction I can point you to, is
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—– deep neural networks (dnn)

This CAN work, because:
1.
2.
3.

This CANNOT work, because:
1.
2.
3.

—– Fuzzy Logic
This CAN work, because:
1.
2.
3.

This CANNOT work, because:
1.
2.
3.

—– Machine learning and data mining techniques
This CAN work, because:
1.
2.
3.

This CANNOT work, because:
1.
2.
3.

—– Kalman filter
This CAN work, because:
1.
2.
3.

This CANNOT work, because:
1.
2.
3.

—– FD (Frequency Distribution)

This CAN work, because:
1.
2.
3.

This CANNOT work, because:
1.
2.
3.

—– Law of Averages

This CAN work, because:
1.
2.
3.

This CANNOT work, because:
1.
2.
3.

—– Law of Numbers

This CAN work, because:
1.
2.
3.

This CANNOT work, because:
1.
2.
3.

—– MM

This CAN work, because:
1.
2.
3.

This CANNOT work, because:
1.
2.
3.

—– Structure analysis

This CAN work, because:
1.
2.
3.

This CANNOT work, because:
1.
2.
3.

—– anything related/based on self-adapting to the market

This CAN work, because:
1.
2.
3.

This CANNOT work, because:
1.
2.
3.

Forex Myths busted:

___________________________________________
Introduction : …………. (every YouTube trainer in forex tells you that his indicator works. Below I will explain why they CAN work or CANNOT work.)
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—– indicators (oscillators, trend/ranged, volume, MAs)
This CAN work, because:
1. Most indicators are leading/lagging (past). Some indicators (like trendline breakouts, Andrew’s pitchfork, ……., ……….., …………) are indicating the future, which has a higher probability. Because: ………………………….
2.
3.

This CANNOT work, because:
1. Most indicators take very basic aspects of statistical analysis
2. Fibonnaci and MAs cannot work, because……………..
3. most indicators do not use data that are statistically measurable, provide no tradeable info, and is non representative of market generated data/info (candlesticks). If the only data you have available to you is OHLC what you need to do is “un coerce”/reformat the data back into a market generated format. Data that has both a “price” column and a column that marks “time”. By breaking the market into it’s components/units: TPO’s… “price*time events”, “time price opportunities”, “time that price occurred” , all the same. You now have a data set that is quantifiable & measurable is unbiased by observer TF (objective data). Frequency “Counts” of each time a price is used over time Gives you a single multidimensional distribution/display of prices (Structure).
“Demand” can be read from the frequency of times a price has been used……..
By keeping a tally/count how many times a “price” is used at each 30m interval your data now has a “price” column and you have a count of the “times” a price was used in a “time” column. you have then restored your data to it’s original market generated Price*time format. Now you have a display of MGD that displays both price and time in which you can now use for analysis. How much of the traders’ activity contains “actual demand” created by traders willing to hold their positions overnight? And as volume is not a direct indication of “actual demand”, it has little or no value. Demand moves the market, not volume (activity).
4. how many traders know that a MACD is the spread of two moving averages? and that spread has another moving average shadowing the spread? If traders understood that, most likely they would not rely on it as heavily, since moving averages can be an ineffective tool to use on their own.

etc

—– patterns, waves and cycles (1-2-3 waves, Elliot waves, HnS wave pattern, bullish engulfing candle pattern, etc)
This CAN work, because:
1.
2.
3.

This CANNOT work, because:
1.
2.
3.

To what extent is the Forex market random:
___________________________________________
Introduction: …………………….. (scientists have proven that Economic News moves the Forex market. Below we will go in depth to what extent the forex market is random.)
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For example:
– scalping below 10 pips is trading with more random price feed, than above 10 pips. Because:…….
– structure analysis: the forex has structure because central banks (CB) insist on it, and tier 1 and 2 banks function in a way that delivers structure (I’m looking at a 4h to 1D chart). Most of the time, this relationship (between CB and Tier banks) works well, but when structure falls apart, the CB’s take control (ie, 2008). No matter what, order will be/is imposed on the forex, and the processes these organizations use, in respond to fundamental announcements and regular international fund flows, will determine structure.
– etc etc
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How should (or shouldn’t) you trade:
___________________________________________
Introduction: …………………….. ()
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For example:
– never trade on a live account when you trade on a demo account on the same instance. Because:…….
– rather forward test on a small live account, than on a demo. Because:…….
– when manual trading you should use price data feed from an independent source, and then open new entry positions in your own broker’s platform. Because:…….

How should (or shouldn’t) you automate an indicator or EA:
___________________________________________
Introduction: …………………….. ()
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For example:
– Program in Python instead of mql4. Because:…….
– pull prices from an exchange and calculate your indicator using TA lib or alphavantage. Use pandas date time index dataframe using rolling methods.
– Good practice is first understanding the math behind each before observing behavioural patterns, or if you are good enough, expecting patterns from the math.
– best indicators are MTF, non-repainting, linear regression, ….., ……………, ………. because:…………………….
– More modern methods would be to use machine learning and data mining techniques to try predict price changes

Why is backtesting not effective to measure the profitability/probability of your trading system:
___________________________________________
Introduction: …………………….. ()
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For example:


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