retireme replies to: Exotics (USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, USD/MXN, and others)

Speculating out Loud on DXY directional bias

I’m bullish longer term because it still fits Wyckoff cycles.

It rests at very strong support and runs along very strong trend lines. I don’t normally pay attention to trendlines, but this is a long-running trendline.

I believe the recent bearish move on the dollar are technical plays by traders. I was a lot of signals over the last few days in confluence with major reverals (bearish) signal on the weekly. Probably heavy duty swing traders.

I’d be willing to bet any bearish movement we see next week (catalytic fundamentals notwithstanding) is short-lived and it breaks into a range (accumulation).

That head and shoulders on the daily looks enticing, but I bet it’s a liquidity trap.

It may not break support even, but head right into a range.

MY vote: range or bull continuance next week.

Honestly, I think this is accurately reflected in the range of USDTRY. The boys trading her are smart, loaded and keen on the dollar movement. If they don’t know, I shouldn’t know.

Photos: Wyckoff Cycles, DXY Daily for Comparison, Head and Shoulders via Daily

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