tincog replies to: My Fundamental / Sentiment analysis of Currencies

Morning, fantastic thread – thank you for starting what is I believe the only way to trade forex….using fundamentals and sentiment. After all this is how professionals trade !!

I started with technicals 5 years ago and didn’t understand why i was losing so much and blowing up accounts – sure other factors influenced, i.e. psychology, but main thing I learnt after switching to fundamentals 3 years ago, is having the conviction to be in trade, if you know things are correlated in your favour – both fundamentals/ sentiment and technicals all lining up. For example I took a short AUDJPY yesterday morning and with risk off sentiment yesterday as well as bearish sentiment on AUD (after Tuesday early Asian session), price sure enough tanked. A great set up as price pulled back into fibs yesterday during London open, calling out for a trade. Another thing I have learnt is to wait patiently for market to come to me with these types of setups and not to chase them.

Today I am looking at shorting AUNZD, as NZD financial stability report was strong last night. I believe NZD is oversold and waiting for some good news to buy some NZD short term. Pairing against aussie, as sentiment is still bearish right now. Rather than sell at the lows right now, I am waiting for a small pullback to support line , turned resistance at 1.085 (also psychological level). There is nice space down for 100+ pips, with stop above swing high at 1.09 (50 pips stop).

Looking forward to staying in touch

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