Winston Reed replies to: Rags to Riches in 10 or 20 Trades – Simplicity at its finest


{quote} No … you continue with 50% of the remaining.

I’d like to revisit this strategy after a long and painful enough journey:

1. The most possible way to do the 9 NWT is using 10% risk max. because with 50% risk – no matter how big your account – you will almost always have no chance to survive.

2. Even if you have R/R = 1:1 and 10% risks, some losing trades in a row will make big drawdowns which could badly affect your heart health. As I mentioned before, even if you have 90% of winning rates, a losing streak with about 10-15 losses in a row would happened (quoting Nick Radge “The Chartist”). The longer and more you trade, the more chances for you to meet this phenomenon.

3. If your best strategies applied in small time frames (in attempt to make more-achievable targets), you will even more get stopped out by the volatility a.k.a. randomness.

I dare to conclude that this 9 NWT will never ever make you rich. Theoretically yes, but technically NO – it will only make you vanished or poor at best.

Trust me, PLEASE stop trying to trade with 50% risk! Consider the scheme as a picture of blind greediness. Greed is good but not in this particular way.

Nothing personal with the originator of the idea. It was a great idea but it is very hard and painful to be done.

Thank you.

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